I saw an item on a Facebook group where the general meme was that everyone knows cellular phone usage while driving is the cause of most vehicle crashes. The data, however, paints a remarkably different picture. Cellular phone usage, per the government’s own data, is a minor causative factor in vehicle crashes.
There are many causative factors in car crashes: one category of causative factors is “distracted driving”. Cellular phone usage is a subset of “distracted driving”.
The U.S.government’s National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published a report in 2016 on distracted driving, with data up to 2014 (the most recent data available).
Here is what they write on page 1:
“A distraction-affected crash is any crash in which a driver was identified as distracted at the time of the crash.
Ten percent of fatal crashes, 18 percent of injury crashes, and 16 percent of all police-reported motor vehicle traffic crashes in 2014 were reported as distraction-affected crashes…”
Let’s restate this:
- 10% of fatal crashes involved a driver distraction
- 18% of injury crashes involved a driver distraction
- 16% of all reported crashes involved a driver distraction
The proportion of those distracted driving incidents where a cellular phone was a causative factor is a subset of these percentages (see tables in the report):
- 7% of 10% of fatal crashes or less than 1% of all fatal crashes
- 13% of 18% of injury crashes or about 2.3% of all injury crashes
- Cellular phone usage for “all crashes” (including non fatal, non injury) is not provided in the report but is likely similar to the two other categories.
The data provided by the U.S. government does not support the widespread meme that cellular phone usage is the leading cause of vehicle crashes. Is my interpretation off in space? The report uses remarkably plain language for a government report. Am I missing something?
Why do people believe cellular phone usage is a leading cause if not pre-dominant cause of vehicle crashes? (This was the conclusion of those in a Facebook group discussing this topic.)
There is no official answer to that question so we can only guess:
- Selected (cherry picked) emotional stories are given widespread media exposure
- Bad journalism/bad reporting (fake news from “non-fake” news sources) – often using a variety of propaganda methods to convey this. One common approach in news reports is to quote an “expert” (appeal to authority) who says “Over 30% of crashes are caused by cellular phone usage”. This is a common quote in many news reports, none of which substantiate the number except by an appeal to authority.
- Propaganda efforts by the insurance industry to promote a reduction in risk (and their costs)
- The tendency to generalize from n=small numbers (I once saw a bad driver using a cellular phone, therefore most bad driving is due to cellphone usage, and if most bad driving is due to cell phone usage then this must be the cause of most crashes). This is a”logical fallacy“.
- Everyone just knows that cellular phone usage by drivers causes most crashes (both the assertion and the get on the bandwagon propaganda methods).
- If anyone cites the data in a social media reply, this unleashes a barrage of name calling (another propaganda method) that if you disagree, you are a denier, an idiot or whatever.
Facts and logic are the enemy of propaganda. When many people believe something to be true, and that “something” is not supported by official data, it is likely that propaganda messaging has been used to persuade the public.